Too many PhDs? That's a hot topic in the science community. There's new research that looks at the chemistry career path, which can include an often long period of low pay — or no pay — in what's known as a "post-doc," a postdoctoral position at a university. It's often an uncertain and unstable situation, but that's how to get an academic job.
One of the researchers of this new study is UMass Amherst economist Ina Ganguli. She said they looked at whether chemistry PhDs know what their chances are to get an academic job, and whether that impacts their decisions. The study found a bias of "excessive optimism."
Ina Ganguli, UMass Economist: You could think of it as overconfidence or kind of being misinformed. What we were setting out to do is ... we were interested in this question of, were they overconfident of what they think their chances of getting an academic job were?
We also looked at whether they thought that they would be able to publish in some of these top journals. In an academic career, you have to publish to be able to get tenure. The goal is to contribute to this body of knowledge by publishing. And so, even the fact that we're finding in the sample [that] people don't know about their chances of publishing, it just shows that they're not informed when going down this career path.
And so, yeah, I think it was striking, I think, the extent that people were misinformed or biased. This is this larger question that the community is looking at. There's a lot of efforts now of doing more career counseling and providing data on what people who do PhDs, what their subsequent careers are. So I think there is a move in that direction.
In general, I think of somebody who might be a chemistry post-grad as a person who is a very methodical, precise person, who likes a predictable field, and is curious. Is it shocking to you that this kind of scientist can hold a belief that is so far from reality, even though they are given empirical evidence that says the odds of getting that faculty position or getting that journal byline is really low?
Yeah, I think this is surprising to us.But I think there's a few different things that could be going on. Why do people become scientists? We know that there's kind of different motivations. So, as you said, curiosity. Some people just are really drawn to the science. And so if they think that having an academic career is where they can really solve the puzzles that they want to work on, it might be that that that's what's motivating them. So, even in the face of data, maybe it doesn't matter. They just really want to kind of have that career.
It's hard to understand how people behave. And that's what we're trying to do here as social scientists.
Now, I will say that one caveat is like, with the postdoc — chemistry is a field where a large share do go into industry. So I think it was interesting for us to look at this, because industry options are really great and prevalent. And so doing a postdoc can also help you get an industry job, as well.
It's complex what goes into these decisions that people make, but I think still, the fact that we see that they adjust their beliefs. But there's still, again, this idea maybe that people kind of can still make it down this path, I think is showing up a bit, too.
And they may have adjusted their beliefs a little bit. But essentially, here are a bunch of chemistry post grads who have shelled out a huge pile of cash on a dream that is more than unlikely to occur, to become that professor and get that journal byline. So what's next?
Right, yes, I do want to say they shelled out cash, but the way they shelled it out is actually in the time that they're putting into it, right? So if we think about you're finishing the PhD, you've done typically like four years of undergrad, maybe five to six years of a PhD. And what you're investing is, is this time and I think this is where the postdoc is where it's a few more years even. So it's really like they're putting in all this time.
Absolutely. Are you making friends or enemies with chemistry departments across these 56 institutions in presenting this research?
Yes. So far, I don't think that we have any enemies out there. I think it's great to see that there's interest in this research. And we'd love to partner with some of these departments or associations, because I think this is a question that they think about a lot.
Especially now, going forward, I think there's creativity about how to how to help students understand different careers. And so, I hope that we will be friends and we will be collaborating in the future.
