AYESHA RASCOE, HOST:
The repercussions of last night's U.S. strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities stretch far beyond the borders of Iran, Israel and the region. Moscow and Beijing could prove to be consequential in this moment. Nicole Grajewski is a fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace's Nuclear Policy Program, and she joins us now. Welcome.
NICOLE GRAJEWSKI: Oh, thank you so much for having me.
RASCOE: So let's start with Russia. Its security relationship with Iran has deepened in recent years. What can you tell us about that?
GRAJEWSKI: Well, certainly, the Russia-Iran relationship has grown exponentially since the war in Ukraine with the provision of Iranian drones to Russia. You've also seen Russia and Iran cooperate in Syria in 2015. Of course, that collapsed this past year. But the Russia-Iran relationship is robust when it comes to military technical cooperation. They have no kind of clause that binds them to mutual aid when it comes to defense matters. But in terms of Iran's missile program, Iran's conventional program, Russia has contributed quite significantly to some of the technology behind that.
RASCOE: And what about Iran's relationship with China?
GRAJEWSKI: Iran's relationship with China is primarily more economic focused. China is one of the largest investors of foreign direct investment in Iran. They have quite a bit of investments when it comes to Iranian ports. And, of course, China imports a lot of Iran's oil through teapot refineries, and so that relationship's quite crucial when it comes to the economic dimension.
RASCOE: Well, do you think, in this moment, that China may be trying or may try to help get supplies to Iran or do things, you know, kind of back channels to help them in this moment?
GRAJEWSKI: It's unclear. I mean, there's been reports of some transport planes flying into Tehran, but those haven't been confirmed. I think at the moment, Iran's needs are much more about, you know, kind of determining its future and where it's going to go. And China and Russia actually play a pretty important role when it comes to the diplomatic side of it. And certainly, the Chinese are concerned about this escalation and, you know, with some threats to close the Strait of Hormuz. That would really impact China's economic interests not only in Iran, but in the Persian Gulf. So right now, I think what you're going to see is both the Russians and Chinese trying to at least support Iran when it comes to international forums like the U.N. Security Council and trying to deescalate the situation.
RASCOE: What have Beijing and Moscow been saying about the U.S. strikes on Iran?
GRAJEWSKI: Well, both Beijing and Moscow came out with pretty strongly worded statements that condemned the strikes. At the moment, actually, we've seen that the Iranian foreign minister Abbas Araghchi has announced that he'll be traveling to Moscow tonight to discuss consultations with Vladimir Putin, potentially on a U.N. Security Council draft to end the hostilities. And so it does seem like Iran's leaning on them. They've condemned the strikes quite profoundly.
RASCOE: Neither China nor Russia - both of them, nuclear powers - have militarily intervened so far. Is there or was there any expectation in Iran for them to step in and help them militarily?
GRAJEWSKI: No, there's - I mean, as much as the tension has been on the Russia-Iran relationship when it comes to Ukraine or the Russia-Iran-China kind of triangle, decision-makers in Iran had no illusions about the extent of their ties to both Russia and China. Neither country has offered Iran mutual aid or assistance when it comes to military matters. And so their contemplation about going into this with Israel and kind of these exchanges really weren't hinged on its ties to Russia and China.
RASCOE: Well, Russia and China have each tried to kind of counterbalance the West with their influence and power. Is this an opportunity for them to try to kind of throw that weight around?
GRAJEWSKI: I would say so. I mean, I think the narrative coming out of this, especially in the Global South, really panders to the kind of worldview that Russia and China have sought to create about this anti-Western multipolar order. And so they've been - they're capitalizing on this to kind of draw together a coalition of states that are against the United States. They're also - might potentially use this for horizontal escalation and view this conflict as kind of a way to distract from other issues like Ukraine, for example.
RASCOE: That's the Carnegie Endowment's Nicole Grajewski. Thank you so much for speaking with us today.
GRAJEWSKI: Thank you for having me. Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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