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What's at stake as Trump prepares to meet Putin in Alaska?

In this combination of file photos, President Donald Trump, left, and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, center, are seen at the Elysee Palace, Dec. 7, 2024 in Paris, and President Vladimir Putin, right, addresses a Technology Forum in Moscow on Feb. 21, 2025.
Aurelien Morissard, left and center, Pavel Bednyakov, right
/
AP
In this combination of file photos, President Donald Trump, left, and Ukraine's President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, center, are seen at the Elysee Palace, Dec. 7, 2024 in Paris, and President Vladimir Putin, right, addresses a Technology Forum in Moscow on Feb. 21, 2025.

MOSCOW — President Trump said he was quickly moving forward with plans to meet with Russian leader Vladimir Putin in Alaska this Friday — a snap summit that will see Trump once again pursue his goal of a negotiated end to Putin's war in Ukraine.

This time, face to face with the Kremlin leader.

"Probably in the first two minutes I'll know if a deal can be made," said Trump speaking before the press at the White House on Monday.

When a journalist asked how, Trump responded: "Because that's what I do. I make deals."

The Kremlin has remained largely silent since confirming the summit would take place in Alaska.

Trump indicated that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was unlikely to be included in talks he described as a "feel-out meeting" to better understand Russia's demands for ending the war.

Ukraine's absence from the summit has prompted concerns in Kyiv and among its European allies that Trump may agree to far-reaching concessions behind Ukraine's back.

Over the weekend, leaders from the U.K., France, Italy, Germany, Poland, Finland and the European Commission issued a statement insisting Kyiv be included in any talks about its own future.

"The path in Ukraine cannot be decided without Ukraine," the Europeans said in the statement.

Trump indicated his priority would be to set up a direct meeting between Putin and Zelenskyy — provided there were terms he deemed acceptable.

"I'm going to meet with President Putin and I'm going to see what he has in mind," said Trump, adding he would then inform NATO and European partners as well as President Zelenskyy.

"Out of respect I'll call him first," said Trump of the Ukrainian leader.

Trump also announced he would hold a phone call with European leaders and Zelenskyy before the summit — with talks tentatively scheduled for Wednesday.

Ukraine eyes summit from afar 

Kyiv remains wary of the summit. Zelenskyy voiced appreciation for Trump's peace efforts but warned Putin was out to manipulate the American leader.

Indeed, there were signs that Trump was already frustrated with Zelenskyy's public refusal to cede land to Moscow amid negotiations he has no part in — citing Ukraine's constitution.

"I was a little bothered by the fact that Zelenskyy was saying, 'I have to get constitutional approval [to give up territory],'" Trump said on Monday.

"He's got approval to go into war and kill everybody, but he needs approval to do a land swap?" added Trump.

Zelenskyy has long argued that any peace in Ukraine would hinge largely on the West providing Kyiv with security guarantees.

Yet, in his nightly address Monday, Zelenskyy said Kyiv's analysis of recent Russian battlefield maneuvers indicated Moscow was preparing for new military operations.

Putin may be talking about peace, said Zelenskyy, but "certainly not getting ready for a ceasefire or an end to the war."

"There is no sign that the Russians have received signals to prepare for a postwar situation," Zelenskyy said.

Confusion over Russia's position

Given the summit was just announced last week, planning has unfolded at breakneck speed — with the exact time, place and length of the meetings still largely unknown.

In particular, confusion has reigned — both in the press and among U.S. allies — over a meeting between White House special envoy Steve Witkoff and Putin at the Kremlin last week.

What Russian concessions had warranted a face-to-face meeting with an American president?

Speaking Monday, Trump doubled down on earlier comments that a deal could involve "swapping territories."

"There will be some landswapping going on," said Trump on Monday. "I know that through conversations with Russia and conversations with everybody."

Trump added any compromise would be "for the good of Ukraine."

"Also some bad stuff," he added. "For both."

Publicly, Putin has shown little sign of pulling back from maximalistist demands that include an end to Ukraine's NATO ambitions, Ukraine's disarmament and Kyiv's formal ceding of all land claimed but not totally controlled by Russian forces.

Sergei Markov, a pro-Kremlin analyst and former Putin spokesman, acknowledged grand gestures from the Russian leader were unlikely given what Putin saw as Russia's battlefield supremacy.

Yet, Markov argued Putin would be looking for offers that might convince Trump he's closing in on his goal of a ceasefire.

"I think it's some kind of possibility of Putin to give a small gift to Donald Trump to keep Donald Trump in the peace process," Markov told NPR.

From sanctions to summit

Russians have largely celebrated news of the Alaskan summit — which appeared to at least postpone a Trump threat to impose massive secondary sanctions and tariffs on most Russian energy exports.

For weeks, Trump had attacked Putin's continued deadly bombing of Ukrainian cities in starkly personal terms.

"I go home, I tell the first lady, 'You know, I spoke to Vladimir today. We had a wonderful conversation.' And she said, 'Oh really? Another city was just hit,'" said Trump in a July 14 meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in the Oval Office.

That same day, Trump announced he had reached a deal to sell American-made weapons to NATO allies in Europe for delivery to Ukraine.

Trump also announced what would eventually become an Aug. 8 deadline for Russia to wind up the war or face "severe" new economic penalties.

Instead, Putin will hold his first summit with an American leader since 2021, when then-President Biden sought to convince him to stand down his forces ahead of what would become the largest land war in Europe in a generation.

"A master class in diplomacy"

In Moscow, Putin's supporters argued the Russian leader had pulled the equivalent of a rabbit out of a diplomatic hat.

"In my view, Vladimir Putin showed was nothing short of a masterclass in diplomacy," wrote Yury Podolyak, one of a group of Russian pro-war bloggers that have gained notoriety — and influence — amid the war in Ukraine.

"Very few people these days know how to navigate their way out of a difficult situation like that," added Podolyak.

"In general, the very fact that a summit being held in Alaska without Zelensky and his European sponsors — is a substantial diplomatic victory," Podolyak chimed in, in an article in the daily tabloid Moskovsky Komsomolets.

"The selection of Alaska is an excellent choice!" the article continued, noting that "without a special invitation," there was no way for Zelenskyy or Europe to interrupt the proceedings.

Alaska's shared heritage

Kremlin supporters have similarly applauded the choice of Alaska as a symbol of shared cultural history.

The 49th state was once part of the Russian Empire — sold to the U.S. in 1867 as Russia sought to recoup massive debts. A different war in a different time.

The Kremlin's envoy for the U.S. talks, Kirill Dmitriev, has repeatedly posted tributes to the region's Russian legacy.

"Born as Russian America — Orthodox roots, forts, fur trade — Alaska echoes those ties & makes the US an Arctic nation," Dmitriev wrote in a post to X.

Trump, too, inadvertently highlighted Alaska's Russian roots when he misspoke at the White House Monday and said "I'm going to Russia on Friday."

The irony: Russian nationalists have long argued that Alaska should be returned to the Russian fold — part of a Russian focus on empire and history that, in many ways, led to the conflict unfolding in Ukraine.

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