JUANA SUMMERS, HOST:
Our next story is about a conflict with no end in sight, not in Iran but in Ukraine. Russia's full-scale war in Ukraine recently crossed the four-year mark. Over that time, the Kremlin's so-called special military operation has evolved into the deadliest conflict on the European continent since World War II. More than a million and a half people are dead, injured or missing, according to Western governments and think tanks. Yet throughout, one of the biggest questions has been - is this what Russians want? NPR's Charles Maynes went hunting for the answer.
CHARLES MAYNES, BYLINE: This was the scene last May.
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MAYNES: I was on Red Square watching goose-stepping soldiers, missiles and tanks as they marched and rumbled over the dark cobblestones.
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MAYNES: All of it for a military parade marking the 80th anniversary of the Soviet Union's victory over Nazi Germany in World War II. And yet what I kept hearing about was another victory, one that hadn't happened yet, over fascism in Ukraine.
EVGENY VILTON: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: "Our grandparents did everything to defeat the Nazi threat and we'll do the same now that it's raised its head again," said Evgeny Vilton (ph), a lieutenant colonel in the Russian army.
YULIA BELIKHOVA: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: Yulia Belikhova (ph) said her son was proudly serving on the front while she worked with military families at home. "We know what we're doing and why," she told me.
ALEXANDER BORODAI: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: I also ran into Alexander Borodai, a key figure in Russia's initial shadow war in eastern Ukraine more than a decade ago, before the full-scale invasion. Now a member of Parliament and sanctioned by the West, Borodai told me he still didn't know when, but victory in Ukraine was coming.
BORODAI: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: "Yes, it's taken longer and been harder than we would have liked in Ukraine, thanks to interference by the West," said Borodai. "But we'll get there, and we're willing to pay any price."
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PRESIDENT VLADIMIR PUTIN: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: In today's Russia, history can feel like a feedback loop, the past echoed, amplified and accelerated to distort the present.
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PUTIN: (Speaking Russian).
(Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: For four years, in speech after speech, Russian President Vladimir Putin has drawn parallels between the fight against Nazis then and the current military campaign against supposed fascists in Kyiv.
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PUTIN: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: And for four years, the Kremlin leader has insisted Russians remain united behind the war effort in Ukraine, one that's dragged on far longer than many predicted, even longer than the Soviet Union's battles against Hitler's armies.
ALEXEY MINYAILO: This illusion of a unified country that can go to any lengths to achieve what Putin wants to achieve, I would say it's one of the strongest weapons.
MAYNES: That's Alexey Minyailo, an opposition activist who launched Chronicles, a research project to counter what he argues is weaponized polling in favor of the war.
MINYAILO: To create some kind of illusion of overwhelming support.
MAYNES: Minyailo says in an environment where criticism of the Russian invasion is criminalized, of course the vast majority of Russians say they support the military campaign. It's out of self-preservation. Yet when presented with more nuanced choices - for example, would you support a decision to withdraw forces early or prefer government resources be devoted elsewhere? - a truer picture emerges.
MINYAILO: We don't have any kind of pro-war majority, and consistently, much more people choose to end the war without reaching goals but sooner than fighting till victory.
MAYNES: In other words, the answers you get depend on the questions you ask.
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IRINA TURBINA: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: In smaller towns like Livny, some 300 miles to the south of the capital, the war mostly thrives on conformity, money and fear, says Irina Turbina (ph) - her son, Arseny (ph), serving a five-year jail term for his anti-war views.
TURBINA: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: He was just 15 years old, a precocious eighth grader with a love for physics, Real Madrid and opposition politics when masked government security agents stormed their apartment in 2023. He was later convicted on terrorism charges for aiding the Ukrainian army, a crime Arseny denies and his mother maintains was fabricated.
TURBINA: (Through interpreter) My boy is now a terrorist. Can you understand that? A terrorist. A lot of people are suffering because they don't agree with Russia's position towards Ukraine, because they thought what was happening was wrong and couldn't stay silent.
MAYNES: Amid Arseny's legal troubles, Turbina has watched as neighbors and colleagues avoided contact or gone out of their way to show support for the Russian invasion - just in case, she suspects. Meanwhile, others in town have gone off to fight, with army enlistment bonuses and state bereavement payouts in the tens of thousands of dollars transforming the local economy.
TURBINA: (Through interpreter) These payments are beyond many people's wildest dreams, but it's all at the expense of those who sign up for the war because most of them in their previous lives never knew that kind of money.
SERGEI POLETAEV: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: The government's ability to preserve a sense of normalcy has been key to maintaining public morale, says Sergei Poletaev, a supporter of the war effort who writes for the politics blog Vatfor.
POLETAEV: (Through interpreter) Of course, people are tired because it's a war of attrition. People are exhausted on the front lines and in the factories, but the rest of society goes on with their lives. They go to work, buy apartments, go out to eat.
MAYNES: And it's true. Despite wave after wave of Western sanctions, Russia's economy has performed far better than anyone predicted. Even amid more recent signs of mounting economic troubles, Poletaev insists Russians can adapt because they always have.
POLETAEV: (Through interpreter) This is the sixth economic crisis in my lifetime, and it's far from the worst.
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UNIDENTIFIED PEOPLE: (Singing in non-English language).
MAYNES: Yet there's a growing sense that amid a conflict with no immediate end in sight, the state's need for control, too, knows no bounds. Last fall, the arrest of musicians from the band Stoptime over their performance of anti-war cover songs on the streets of St. Petersburg made global headlines.
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DIANA LOGINOVA: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: In court, the group's singer, 18-year-old Diana Loginova who goes by the stage name Naoko, said they were just playing songs they like to a public that wants to hear them.
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LOGINOVA: (Singing in non-English language).
MAYNES: She and another band member have since fled the country, but the case has served as a reminder - wartime censorship laws dictate what Russians can hear, watch, read and share. They impact everyone.
VIKTOR JEROFEJEV: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: "Putin made a huge strategic mistake with this war," says Viktor Jerofejev (ph), one of Russia's leading contemporary writers and now among the ranks of hundreds of thousands of Russians living in exile. These days, Jerofejev often writes about what went wrong in his homeland and what he and others could have done differently.
JEROFEJEV: (Through interpreter) Why do I write these things? - because I feel guilty too, that I could have done more.
MAYNES: These are dark times, argues Jerofejev. Russia may be stuck in an endless war in Ukraine, but its might-makes-right world view - what Jerofejev calls barbarism - is on the march everywhere, including the U.S.
JEROFEJEV: (Speaking Russian).
MAYNES: "Today, America's future is as unpredictable as Russia's," warns Jerofejev, adding one key difference. "Russians," he says, "we're used to it." Charles Maynes, NPR News, Moscow.
(SOUNDBITE OF MUSIC) Transcript provided by NPR, Copyright NPR.
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