A new statewide poll from the University of Massachusetts Amherst and WCVB finds that Democratic primary voters favor incumbent Sen. Ed Markey over Rep. Seth Moulton in the U.S. Senate race by a double-digit percentage point margin.
The poll found that Markey holds a 28-point lead over Moulton, at 60 points compared to 32.
More than four in five self-identified Democratic primary voters approve of Markey's performance and his work representing the Commonwealth in Washington, according to the poll.
While Moulton's campaign has argued that he represents a younger generation of leadership, the poll finds that many voters view Markey's age positively, saying he's the more experienced, reliable candidate.
"I think what Sen. Markey has been able to do effectively is …make the case that in the U.S. Senate, particularly given the challenges faced by the Democratic Party and the challenges faced by the Commonwealth, you want experience," said Tatishe Nteta, professor of political science at UMass Amherst and director of the poll. "You want someone who has been there and who has been endorsed by not just the progressive wing of the party, but also the moderate wing of the party."
The survey, which was conducted earlier this month, is based on responses from more than 800 registered voters. Roughly 445 of those voters were registered Democrats. It has a margin of error of 4.4% among all respondents, and 5.8% among self-identified Democratic primary voters.
Asked about the poll, Taylor Hebble, a spokesperson for the Seth Moulton for Massachusetts campaign, said public polling has a "recent history of being wildly wrong."
"Just look at Wisconsin and Michigan, where double-digit polling leads evaporated on Election Day," she said in a statement. "If you want to know how this race is going, look at Ed Markey's recent actions."
Hebble charged Markey with "skipping candidate forums" — apparently referring to a Project Bread forum on Aug. 12 — and "taking $62,000 from Chuck Schumer — away from battleground races." For the latter allegation, Moulton has cited a federal filing indicating that Markey received that amount of money from the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.
Markey also continues to garner support from key Democratic constituencies, including women, people of color and college-educated, middle-aged and younger voters.
Nteta said "these are many of the same constituencies that powered Markey to victory in his 2020 primary contest against Joe Kennedy III."
"We're seeing that again this electoral go-around," he said. "In fact, 7 in 10 liberals support Senator Markey."
Nteta adds that the most surprising result is the support for Markey among women.
"We see that women support Markey 65 to 24 for Moulton," he said. "This large-level gender gap that we see, or at least this large level of support for Senator Markey among women, is really, I think, at the heart of the margin that he has at this point."
Nteta adds that if Moulton wants to turn the tides, "he is going to need to figure out what's going on with his support among women, and he's going to need to address that quickly."
The poll finds that when choosing a candidate, voters focused first on ideology, with most viewing Markey as the progressive candidate in the race.
Jesse Rhodes, a professor of political science at UMass Amherst and co-director of the poll, said this comes after Moulton took a conservative position on transgender issues following President Trump's 2024 win.
"This is perceived as a significant difference between the two candidates by likely Democratic primary voters," said Rhodes. "Unfortunately for Moulton, this strategy doesn't seem to be resonating well with likely voters in the primary. Transgender issues have become very important to the Democratic base."
Rhodes adds that the survey shows that many likely Democratic primary voters see Moulton as "too conservative."
Nteta emphasized that polls should not be used as predictive tools.
"What we have is a snapshot in time as to where the Democratic electorate is at that moment," he said. "You have a debate this week, you have again, a campaign that is going to continue after that debate, and there are ample opportunities for Representative Moulton to turn the tides in this."
Copyright 2026 GBH News Boston